AGILE APPROACH
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The preface of Economic Survey states that the “Agile approach” is based on feed-back loops, real-time monitoring of actual outcomes, flexible responses, safety-net buffers and so on.
The Economic Survey 2021-22 argues that some form of feedback loop based policy-making was always possible, but the “Agile framework: is particularly relevant today because of the explosion of real-time data that allows for constant monitoring.
Such information includes GST collections, digital payments, satellite photographs, electricity production, cargo movements, internal/external trade, infrastructure roll-out, delivery of various schemes, mobility indicators, to name just a few.
Other themes
Another theme highlighted in this Economic Survey relates to the art and science of policy-making under conditions of extreme uncertainty.
The Preface also takes a bird’s eye view of the “great deal of evolution” of the Economic Surveys presented since the first Survey in 1950-51.
source :Indira Budgt
STATE OF THE ECONOMY (VIEW OF ECONOMIC SURVEY)
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Indian economy estimated to grow by 9.2 percent in real terms in 2021-22 (as per first advanced estimates) subsequent to a contraction of 7.3 percent in 2020-21.
GDP projected to grow by 8- 8.5 percent in real terms in 2022-23.
Projection comparable with World Bank and Asian Development Bank’s latest forecasts of real GDP growth of 8.7 percent and 7.5 percent respectively for 2022-23.
As per IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook projections, India’s real GDP projected to grow at 9 percent in 2021-22 and 2022-23 and at 7.1 percent in 2023-2024, which would make India the fastest growing major economy in the world for all 3years.
Agriculture and allied sectors expected to grow by 3.9 percent; industry by 11.8 percent and services sector by 8.2 percent in 2021-22.
On demand side, consumption estimated to grow by 7.0 percent, Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) by 15 percent, exports by 16.5 percent and imports by 29.4 percent in 2021-22.
Source :Indian Budget
EXTERNAL SECTORS (VIEW OF ECONOMIC SURVEY)
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India’s merchandise exports and imports rebounded strongly and surpassed pre-COVID levels during the current financial year.
There was significant pickup in net services with both receipts and payments crossing the pre-pandemic levels, despite weak tourism revenues.
Net capital flows were higher at US$ 65.6 billion in the first half of 2021-22, on account of continued inflow of foreign investment, revival in net external commercial borrowings, higher banking capital and additional special drawing rights (SDR) allocation.
India’s external debt rose to US $ 593.1 billion at end-September 2021, from US $ 556.8 billion a year earlier, reflecting additional SDR allocation by IMF, coupled with higher commercial borrowings.
Foreign Exchange Reserves crossed US$ 600 billion in the first half of 2021-22 and touched US $ 633.6 billion as of December 31, 2021.
As of end-November 2021, India was the fourth largest forex reserves holder in the world after China, Japan and Switzerland.
source: Indian budget
MONETARY MANAGEMENT AND FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION (VIEW OF ECONOMIC SURVEY)
The Union Minister for Finance Nirmala Sitharaman presented the Economic Survey 2021-22 in Parliament.
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Repo rate was maintained at 4 per cent in 2021-22.
RBI undertook various measures such as G-Sec Acquisition Programme and Special Long-Term Repo Operations to provide further liquidity.
YoY Bank credit growth accelerated gradually in 2021-22 from 5.3 per cent in April 2021 to 9.2 per cent as on 31st December 2021.
The Gross Non-Performing Advances ratio of Scheduled Commercial Banks (SCBs) declined from 11.2 per cent at the end of 2017-18 to 6.9 per cent at the end of September, 2021.
Net Non-Performing Advances ratio declined from 6 percent to 2.2 per cent during the same period.
Capital to risk-weighted asset ratio of SCBs continued to increase from 13 per cent in 2013-14 to 16.54 per cent at the end of September 2021.
89,066 crore was raised via 75 Initial Public Offering (IPO) issues in April-November 2021, which is much higher than in any year in the last decade.
source: Indian budget
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